Are real estate properties built today prepared for the climate of 2050?

Climate risk is increasingly becoming an operational risk

We design a building for decades, while the climatic and infrastructural conditions under which it must operate change much faster. Temperatures above 40 °C in Hungary are no longer merely a future scenario. Prolonged heatwaves put an increasing strain on energy supply and building services systems. Prolonged drought in certain regions can lead to water supply problems, which are then ended by rain and intense storms following the extended dry period.

In 2025 and this year, major heatwaves were typically characterized by daily averages of roughly 26–28 °C, daytime temperatures of 38–41 °C, and warmest nights of 20–25 °C. Around 2050, in a similarly severe weather situation, a daily average of 27–29 °C and peak temperatures around 40–42 °C are expected instead.

If real estate sector players want to get through this situation without damage, disrupted operations, and permanent loss of value, a shift in mindset is inevitable. It is no longer sufficient to evaluate the impacts of climate change solely based on direct physical damage to buildings. An increasingly important question is whether the property will be able to operate safely, economically, and continuously under changing conditions. Climate risk is becoming an operational risk.

The assessment of climate risks has been part of nearly a decade of practice in environmental impact assessment procedures for major investments and projects receiving European Union funding. In the real estate sector, such analyses have been carried out in recent years for buildings applying the requirements of international green building certification systems (BREEAM, LEED) as well as those fulfilling the EU Taxonomy criteria. However, the acceleration of climate change experienced again this year has brought new aspects and solutions to the forefront of climate risk assessment.

A good example of this is the impact and management of heatwaves. According to previous assessment methodologies, the impacts of future heatwaves were examined primarily in terms of increasing cooling energy demand, building overheating, and the deterioration of building energy performance. Today, we see that it is also necessary to examine what happens when the cooling system has to operate at the limit of its capacity for several days. Sustained high daytime and nighttime temperatures increase the operating time and load of building services systems, along with the risk of breakdown. Such a system failure does not only cause a loss of comfort: in extreme cases, it can also affect the usability of the building and business continuity.

This is particularly important for properties whose systems were sized for weather conditions that no longer correspond to current extremes, let alone those of the coming decades. These buildings must be renovated and adapted to be suitable for operating under changing climate conditions.

A good example of practical adaptation for complex buildings is the Allee Shopping Centre, where climate adaptation has already become part of daily operations. Based on regularly updated climate risk assessments, the action plans prepared by Greenbors Consulting are systematically implemented during operations, continuously improving the building's operational capability. Among other features, green walls, a green roof, and shading installed above the glass facade help mitigate thermal load; the latter reduced the temperature of the interior spaces affected by the shaded facade by several degrees Celsius.

Vulnerability can also manifest outside the building

A property's operational capability is determined not only by the operation of the building's own systems, but also by the connected infrastructure. Heat increases electricity demand while placing an increased load on the energy system. A major power outage makes operating a building that relies entirely on the grid impossible. Sustained drought, on the other hand, can cause drops in water pressure, consumption restrictions, or other supply issues.

A property can therefore be exposed to operational risk even if the building itself is not physically damaged. For this reason, climate adaptation requires examining not only what weather hazards may affect a given location, but also how dependent the property is on municipal energy, water, or other infrastructure, as these systems are also sensitive to climate change.

Water scarcity and excessive precipitation become problems simultaneously

The water supply for the inner districts of Budapest relies entirely on bank-filtered water sources along the Danube, whose operation is adversely affected by extremely low Danube water levels. Summer water pressure drops, usage restrictions, or even service outages can become realistic operational risks.

Changes in the temporal distribution of precipitation pose another challenge. Longer dry periods can be ended by high-intensity storms delivering large amounts of rain in a short time. Existing stormwater drainage systems can become overloaded due to heavy rainfall, leading to basement and underground garage flooding, water damage, and other operational disruptions.

The impact of green infrastructure is also quantitatively significant: according to studies, an extensive green roof just 8–10 cm thick can retain more than 50% of the annual precipitation falling on it locally. By implementing green roofs and other vegetated building surfaces, indoor temperatures can be reduced by 4–5 °C, while cooling electricity consumption can decrease by more than 11%.

The solution to both challenges above cannot rely solely on draining water as quickly as possible. Retaining precipitation locally and utilizing it long-term is becoming increasingly important. Rainwater harvesting systems, properly designed green spaces, and green roofs can simultaneously aid water retention and reduce flooding risks. Furthermore, the shading and evaporative cooling effects of vegetation can mitigate local warming, cooling energy demand, and the load on building mechanical systems. Green infrastructure thus becomes one of the tools for building resilience in the future.

This approach is systematized by the "sponge city" concept already implemented in several locations in Budapest: instead of draining stormwater as quickly as possible, it builds on retaining, absorbing, and utilizing it locally, thereby mitigating both the load caused by sudden downpours and water scarcity during dry periods. In addition, green spaces created in this way can reduce the microclimate temperature of inner districts by up to 4–5 °C through evaporation and shading.

Buildings need to be not only lower-emission, but also more resilient

Sustainability efforts in the real estate sector have so far primarily emphasized energy efficiency and carbon emission reduction. Alongside these, another approach is becoming increasingly critical: preparing buildings for the climate in which they will need to operate over the coming years and decades.

For new developments, it is advisable to consider this during the design phase and optimize building operation systems for future conditions. For existing properties, points that pose future technical, operational, or financial risks must be identified. However, significant risks and the solutions to be applied can vary from building to building, so climate adaptation does not mean a single technical fix.

Climate adaptation assessments by Greenbors Consulting help uncover which current and future physical climate risks affect a property, what specific technical or operational consequences these may entail, and what interventions can reduce the most critical risks. Our experts do not merely prepare a risk list, but provide decision-support information that is useful from investor, owner, technical, and financing perspectives alike.

Properties being designed, built, or financed today will very likely still be in use in 2050. The dilemma is no longer whether the climatic environment in which the building must operate will change by then, but how we adapt the building and its operation to these predictable challenges.