Are real estate properties built today prepared for the climate of 2050?

Climate risk is increasingly becoming an operational risk

A building is designed for decades, while the climatic and infrastructural conditions in which it must operate are changing much faster. Temperatures above 40 °C in Hungary are no longer exclusively a future scenario. Persistent heatwaves place an increasing burden on energy supply and building mechanical (MEP) systems. Prolonged droughts can lead to water supply problems in certain regions, and then longer precipitation-free periods are ended by rainy, intensive storms.

In 2025 and this year, major heatwaves were characterized by daily averages of roughly 26–28 °C, daytime highs of 38–41 °C, and peak nighttime temperatures of 20–25 °C. Around 2050, in a similarly severe weather situation, a daily average of 27–29 °C and peaks around 40–42 °C are expected.

If the real estate sector's players want to avoid damages, disrupted operations, and long-term loss of value, a paradigm shift is unavoidable. It is no longer sufficient to evaluate the impacts of climate change solely based on the direct physical damages to buildings. An increasingly important question is whether the property will be able to operate safely, economically, and continuously amidst changing conditions. Climate risk is becoming an operational risk.

A good example of this is a heatwave. Previously, we examined it primarily due to increasing cooling energy demands, overheating, and the deterioration of building energy performance. Today, we must also account for the cooling system having to operate at the limits of its capacity for several days. Persistently high daytime and nighttime temperatures increase the operating time and load on mechanical systems, and consequently, the risk of failure. Such a malfunction does not necessarily only cause a loss of comfort: in extreme cases, it can also affect the usability of the building and business continuity.

This is especially important for properties whose systems were sized for weather conditions that no longer necessarily correspond to current extremes, much less those of the coming decades.

A good example of practical adaptation is the Allee Shopping Center, where climate adaptation has already become part of daily operations. Based on regularly updated climate risk assessments, the action plans prepared by Greenbors Consulting are continuously applied during operations. Among other things, green walls, a green roof, and shading installed over the glass facade help mitigate heat load in the building; the latter reduced the temperature of the interior spaces affected by the shaded facade by several degrees Celsius.

Vulnerability can also appear outside the building

The operation of a property is determined not only by the building itself but also by the associated infrastructures. Heat increases electricity demand while simultaneously placing an increased load on the energy system. Prolonged drought, on the other hand, can cause a drop in water pressure, consumption restrictions, or other supply problems.

Therefore, a property can be exposed to operational risks even if the building itself is not physically damaged. That is why, during climate adaptation, it is necessary to examine not only what weather hazards may affect a given location but also the extent to which the property depends on municipal energy, water, or other infrastructure, as these systems are also sensitive to climate change.

Water scarcity and excessive precipitation become problems simultaneously

The water supply for the inner areas of Budapest relies entirely on bank-filtered water bases along the Danube, the operation of which is adversely affected by extremely low Danube water levels. Summer water pressure drops, usage restrictions, or even service outages can become realistic operational risks.

The change in the temporal distribution of precipitation poses another challenge. Longer dry periods can be ended by high-intensity storms falling in a short time. Existing stormwater drainage systems can become overloaded due to heavy rains, which can lead to the flooding of basements and underground garages, water damage, and other operational disruptions.

The impact of green infrastructure is quantitatively significant as well: studies show that an extensive green roof just 8–10 cm thick can retain more than 50% of the annual precipitation falling on it on-site. By using green roofs and other building surfaces designed with vegetation, indoor temperatures can decrease by 4–5 °C, and cooling electricity consumption can be reduced by more than 11%.

Simply draining water as quickly as possible cannot be the sole solution to both of the above challenges. Retaining precipitation on-site and its long-term utilization is becoming increasingly important. Rainwater harvesting systems, properly designed green areas, and green roofs can simultaneously help with water retention and reduce flooding risks. Additionally, the shading and evaporating effects of vegetation can mitigate local warming, cooling energy demands, and the load on building mechanical systems. Thus, green infrastructure will become one of the tools for building resilience in the future. This approach is systematized in the sponge city concept planned for the heart of Budapest: instead of draining rainwater as quickly as possible, it relies on retaining, absorbing, and utilizing it on-site, thereby simultaneously mitigating the load caused by sudden downpours and water shortages during dry periods. Green areas designed in this way can reduce the microclimate temperature in inner districts by up to 4–5 °C through evaporation and shading.

We need not only lower-emission buildings but also more resilient ones

In the real estate sector's sustainability efforts so far, the focus has primarily been on energy efficiency and emission reduction. Alongside these, another approach is becoming increasingly important: preparing buildings for the climate in which they will have to operate in the coming decades.

For new developments, it is advisable to consider this already during the design phase. In the case of existing properties, points that may hide future technical, operational, or financial risks must be identified. As this can differ for every building, climate adaptation does not mean a single technical solution.

The climate adaptation assessments by Greenbors Consulting help uncover what physical climate risks affect a property, what specific technical or operational consequences these may have, and what interventions can reduce the most critical risks. We do not just create a risk list; we provide decision-supporting information that can be used from investor, owner, technical, and financing perspectives alike.

Properties that are being designed, built, or financed today have a good chance of still being in use in 2050. And the dilemma is no longer whether the climate environment in which the building will have to operate will change by then, but rather how we adapt it to foreseeable challenges.